Episode 67: The Economic Outlook for 2019

Carlos and Bob discuss the economic outlook for 2019, from the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory. The yield curve is close to inverting, and if it continues we should expect a recession by the end of 2019 or, failing that, almost certainly in 2020. There are two types of Fed tightening during this recovery, namely interest rate hikes and a rolloff of the Fed’s bonds. Powell can’t indefinitely postpone the bond rolloff because as interest rates rise, the Fed is paying ever more billions in interest to the commercial banks.

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The audio production for this episode was provided by Podsworth Media.