Pulse on the Market

Actually the GDP Numbers Are Not Reassuring

March 1, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

For some reason the upwardly-revised 2nd estimate for 4th quarter 2015 real GDP growth has reassured many analysts that the US economy is doing all right. Here’s an excerpt from   — View Full Article

A Slow Motion Train Wreck

February 22, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

The recent rebound in U.S. equity markets has (as of this writing) pushed the Dow back above “correction territory.” (So does that mean it is back to be erroneously valued?)   — View Full Article

The Connection Between the Fed and the Stock Market

February 19, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

I have made this point in several venues and on the pages of the Lara-Murphy Report for years, but some people may be new to this perspective. In the chart   — View Full Article

Get Ready for Helicopter Money

February 18, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

[Cover image from here.] Some people have thought that guys like Carlos and me were being unduly alarmist for the last several years, when we kept warning that the Fed   — View Full Article

Even Withdrawing Your Money From the Bank Won’t Save You From Negative Rates

February 17, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

I used to say that when short-term interest rates hit zero, and yet the major economies were still stuck in a rut, that this should surely demonstrate the impotence of   — View Full Article

Bond Markets Flashing Warning Signs Now That Fed Is Tightening

February 16, 2016 | By Robert P. Murphy

The above┬áchart from the St. Louis Fed shows two important facts about the bond market: First, the blue line shows the spread between “high yield” (sometimes known as “junk”) bonds   — View Full Article